Amazon will overtake Walmart as the largest US retailer by 2024

Amazon will overtake Walmart as the largest U.S. retailer by 2024 as the online channel increases its share of all retail sales dollars, predicts market researcher CPG Edge by Ascential.

Between 2021 and 2026, Amazon is expected to add more than $294 billion in US sales and grow its US retail market share from 10.8% to 14.9%, while Walmart’s share will fall from 13.2% to 12.7%, according to forecasts from Boston-based Ascential in its “2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report,” released yesterday. Sales figures are calculated using gross market value (GMV).

The North American chain’s overall retail sales were $3.69 trillion in 2021, including $837.5 billion in grocery sales. (Image courtesy of Edge by Ascential)

Walmart ($488 billion) and (Amazon $398.8 billion) were by far the largest U.S. retail chains in 2021, followed by The Kroger Co. ($146.7 billion) and Costco Wholesale (140, $8 billion), according to Edge by Ascential. Rounding out the top 10 were The Home Depot ($137.6 billion), Walgreens ($117.4 billion), Target ($107.5 billion), CVS Health ($105.5 billion), Lowe’s ($92.2 billion) and Albertsons Cos. ($74.6 billion).

Amazon leads with an estimated five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% in chain retail sales for the period 2021-26, well above the second closest CAGR retailer – Costco – at 7.8%. Following these companies by five-year CAGR, Home Depot (5.5%), Target (4.8%), Walgreens (4.6%), Walmart (3.5%), Kroger (3.3%) , CVS (3.1%), Lowe’s (2.7%). %) and Albertson (1.6%).

Among the top six retailers besides Walmart and Amazon, companies expected to increase their share of the chain’s retail sales over the 2021-26 period include Costco (from 3.8% to 4.4%) and Home Depot ( from 3.7% to 3.9%), Edge by According to the Ascential study. Walgreens’ share is expected to remain at 3.2% and Kroger’s share to rise from 4% to 3.7%.

Food, drug and mass retailers will see fewer benefits from online grocery shopping after the pandemic-triggered sales boom in 2020-21, Edge by Ascential noted.

The U.S. online grocery market is expected to add $34.7 billion from 2021 to 2026. Last year, online edible grocery sales totaled $54.8 billion, up 117% from compared to 2019, before the pandemic. Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco accounted for about half of online edible grocery penetration in the United States in 2021, which is expected to grow from 6.5% to 8.8% by 2026. , the five-year CAGR of online grocery is expected to drop from 38.9% in 2021 to 10.3% in 2026.

“Inflationary pressures continue to squeeze margins for retailers, both in the U.S. and abroad, while rising labor rates, rising material costs, and rising commodity prices fuel in all supply chains impact suppliers, retailers and consumers,” Deren Baker, CEO of Edge by Ascential, said in a statement. “Despite these challenges, data from Edge by Ascential shows that e-commerce will continue to be the primary driver of retail growth over the coming years in the United States and around the world.”

Indeed, e-commerce continues to be the primary catalyst for retail growth, the report notes. In 2021, U.S. online sales grew 15.2% to $907.7 billion from $787 billion in 2020, double the growth in overall retail sales, which climbed 7.6% last year. The overall online channel is expected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2022 and by 2026 to account for 30.5% of total retail sales, up from 24.6% in 2021, making the United States the world’s second largest e-commerce market after China. .

“Amazon has always capitalized on its lead as a digital-first platform and pioneered nearly every growth lever associated with platform-based retail, from ‘subscribe and save “to Prime’s membership in Amazon’s evolving media and marketing services brand offerings,” Baker added. AI-powered forecasting tool on Edge Retail Insight predicts that Amazon will overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the United States by 2024.”

Edge by Ascential forecasts growth in the retail chain’s total share only in e-commerce (24.6% to 30.5%) and cash-and-carry/club (6.2% to 6, 5%) from 2021 to 2026. Retail channels are expected to see a decline in this include supermarkets (13.8% to 12.4%), hypermarkets (12.5% ​​to 11.3%), the pharmacy/health (6.7% to 6.2%), catering (6.4% to 5.8%), discount (4.0% to 3.9%) and convenience (2.7% at 2.5%).

The North American chain’s total retail sales were $3.69 trillion in 2021, including $907.7 billion in e-commerce sales (24.6% penetration) and 837 $.5 billion in grocery sales, Edge by Ascential reported. Chain sales accounted for 95% of food retail and 95% of overall retail.

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